President Donald Trump has staked enormous political and military capital on the proposition that sustained bombing combined with aggressive psychological pressure can bring down the Islamic Republic of Iran. Seven days into a campaign that has already killed more than 1,230 Iranians and driven over a million Lebanese from their homes, the answer to that question remains deeply uncertain.
The military case for optimism is considerable. US B-2 bombers have struck Iran’s buried missile infrastructure with specialized penetrating munitions. A major Iranian naval ship used to launch drones has been struck and possibly destroyed. Israel has systematically dismantled Hezbollah’s command infrastructure in Lebanon. The defense secretary has promised further escalation. The IDF chief has hinted at additional surprises. Iran’s air defenses, command networks, and missile capabilities have all been degraded.
But Iran has not folded. The Revolutionary Guards continue to launch missiles and drones at Gulf states and Israeli territory. Hezbollah continues to fight in Lebanon. Iranian state television broadcast large crowds attending Friday prayers in Tehran, weeping for Khamenei but showing no signs of rebellion. Analysts who study the regime note that no senior military officers or Revolutionary Guards commanders have defected — the surest sign that the government’s grip on power remains intact.
Trump has tried to accelerate defections and uprisings with direct appeals to the Iranian public, promising immunity and safety to anyone who helps bring down the regime. But with Iran’s internet reduced to roughly 1% of normal capacity, those messages are struggling to reach the people they are intended for. The targeting of a girls’ school that killed more than 100 students, meanwhile, has provided the Iranian government with powerful propaganda, potentially hardening popular sentiment against the attackers.
The geopolitical consequences of failure would be severe. So would the consequences of a protracted conflict with no clear endpoint. The UN, the EU, and several American allies have quietly urged restraint. Oil prices have already risen sharply. Global markets are unsettled. Tens of thousands of flights have been cancelled. Trump has dismissed all of these concerns, framing the campaign as a historic opportunity to remake the Middle East. History will judge whether he was right.