DataGreat, a tourism intelligence platform, has unveiled a scenario analysis exploring the potential consequences of a prolonged conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States on Turkish tourism, a critical sector for Türkiye’s economy. This analysis, conducted by founder Alper Tekin using DataGreat’s Crisis Impact Simulator, is based on the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025 dataset. The simulator provides a structured examination of Türkiye’s vulnerability to regional tensions, given its proximity to six of its top ten tourism source markets, including Russia, Germany, and the United Kingdom, all within 3,000 kilometers of the Iran–Israel axis. According to WTTC figures, tourism accounts for over 11 percent of Türkiye’s GDP and supports around three million jobs directly.
The Crisis Impact Simulator does not make forecasts; instead, it applies deterministic scenario rules to data from WTTC and the World Bank, with a generative-AI layer explaining the results. Each numerical claim is meticulously sourced, and the platform ensures accuracy by rejecting outputs that cannot be verified, a feature Tekin refers to as “zero hallucinations.” The analysis outlines three scenarios: regional escalation, a Russian outbound shock, and a TRY/USD volatility shock. In the case of regional escalation, airspace disruptions and tighter sanctions could dampen European leisure demand, particularly from Germany, the UK, and the Netherlands, though business travel from the EU might show more resilience.
In the event of a Russian outbound shock, the simulator considers a 20 to 35 percent drop in Russian tourists to Türkiye over a year, spurred by sanctions and financial issues. This scenario would most affect the Antalya and Muğla coastal areas and operators heavily reliant on Russian tourists. The third scenario, a TRY/USD volatility shock, examines the impact of currency fluctuations, potentially making Türkiye a more attractive destination to international visitors while simultaneously reducing domestic leisure spending as Turkish households adjust their budgets.
Tekin emphasizes that this tool is designed for planning rather than prediction, enabling destination management organizations and businesses to prepare for these scenarios before they happen. The full results, which include insights on segment vulnerabilities and mitigation strategies, are accessible to credentialed media. Additionally, DataGreat’s Risk Radar module offers complementary weekly assessments of 42 countries across six tourism risk categories.
DataGreat operates on a robust dataset from the WTTC, covering 42 countries and nearly 27,000 data points. Its suite of tools, including the Persona Builder, Risk Radar, Campaign Brief Generator, and Crisis Impact Simulator, is managed by Solustiq Yazılım ve Yapay Zeka Teknolojileri A.Ş., based in Edirne, Türkiye. For more information, interested parties can visit datagreat.com or contact the company via email. A legal disclaimer notes that the information provided is from independent contributors, and DataGreat does not verify the accuracy of submitted content.